Jurnal Internasional

International Journal Logistic Management: Evaluation of forecasting models for air cargo

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Abstract
Purpose – Virgin Atlantic Cargo is one of the largest air freight operators in the world. As part of a
wider strategic development initiative, the company has identified forecasting accuracy as of strategic
importance to its operational efficiency. This is because accurate forecast enables the company to have
the right resources available at the right place and time. The purpose of this paper is to undertake an
evaluation of current month-to-date forecasting utilized by Virgin Atlantic Cargo. The study employed
demand patterns drawn from historical data on chargeable weight over a seven-year-period covering
six of the company’s routes.
Design/methodology/approach – A case study is carried out, where a comparison between
forecastingmodels is undertaken using error accuracymeasures. Data in the form of historical chargeable
weight over a seven-year-period covering six of the company’s most profitable routes are employed in the
study. For propriety and privacy reasons, data provided by the company have been sanitized.
Findings – Preliminary analysis of the time series shows that the air cargo chargeable weight could
be difficult to forecast due to demand fluctuations which appear extremely sensitive to external market
and economic factors.
Originality/value – The study contributes to existing literature on air cargo forecasting and
is therefore of interest to scholars examining the problems of overbooking. Overbooking which is
employed by air cargo operators to hedge against “no-show” bookings. However, the inability of air
cargo operators to accurately predict cargo capacity unlikely to be used implies that operators are
unable to establish with an aspect of certainty their revenue streams. The research methodology
adopted is also predominantly discursive in that it employs a synthesis of existing forecasting
literature and real-life data for accuracy analysis.
Keywords Evaluation, Modelling, Air cargo, Operations, Forecasting, Air industry
Paper type Case study

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Ketersediaan

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Informasi Detail

Judul Seri

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No. Panggil

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Penerbit

: Emerald Insight., 2014

Deskripsi Fisik

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Bahasa

English

ISBN/ISSN

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Klasifikasi

NONE

Tipe Isi

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Tipe Media

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Tipe Pembawa

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Edisi

Vol. 25 Iss 3 pp. 635 - 655

Subjek

Jurnal Logistik

Info Detail Spesifik

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Pernyataan Tanggungjawab

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Versi lain/terkait

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